A Sense of Proportion
In order to get a sense of proportion, we need more information. Currently, all deaths where the deceased had COVID-19 Coronovirus are recorded as deaths due to the virus. As Terry4 said a few days ago, we need to know how many deaths occurred due to the virus and how many with the virus. We had a little more clarity at yesterday’s briefing when it was said that, of the 2,921 deaths in the UK, 44 people had no underlying health issues. Those figures could be overstated. If the deaths are investigated, as they should be, we may discover some of those had heath issues that had not been identified.
The daily death figures are only those in hospitals. The Office for National Statistics issued figures on Wednesday that included deaths in nursing homes and at home, an additional 40 for the period to Wednesday 25th March. I have asked the ONS to make additional information available so that comparisons can be made with deaths in previous years.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
I realise that, without the virus, some of those with underlying health issues may have lived for years longer and others may have died from other causes.
Before I am criticised for suggesting anyone questions the current group think, please take the time to consider this. It has been claimed that the Conservative government’s austerity policy has cost tens of thousands of lives; some people claim it is more than a hundred thousand. If the World’s economy is shut down for an extended period, the hardship caused by closed businesses, unemployment, dividends not paid, inflation, further erosion of savings, homelessness, the burden of personal, business and government debt and the higher taxes and additional cuts to public services needed to repay it could make the previous austerity seem generous.
We cannot read anything into the number of tests or positive results reported because testing is very limited and focused on patients showing symptoms with some testing of NHS staff. We therefore have no real idea of how many people have or have had the virus.
There have been various estimates of the death rate from COVID-19 ranging between 0.5% and 1.0%. Some suggest the rate may be much lower. Yesterday, 44 deaths out of 2,921 (1 in 66) in the UK were stated to have had no underlying health issues. I have used yesterday’s figures instead of today’s because I have not seen any updated figures for the number of deaths with no underlying health issues.
Based on the 1.0% overall death rate, this equates to a death rate of 0.015% (15 per 100,000) for those with no underlying health issues. Based on the lower 0.5% overall death rate, the death rate for those with no underlying health issues is 0.0075 (15 per 200,000).
According to the ONS:
• In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales
• There were 7,551 deaths registered in the UK in 2018 that related to alcohol-specific causes (11.9 deaths per 100,000 people).
Table 1: Leading cause of death by age group and sex in England and Wales, 2018
Males % of male deaths
All ages Ischaemic heart diseases 13.2
1 to 4 Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities 12.6
5 to 19 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 16.6
20 to 34 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 25.9
35 to 49 Accidental poisoning 12.5
50 to 64 Ischaemic heart diseases 17.3
65 to 79 Ischaemic heart diseases 14.8
80+ Dementia and Alzheimer disease 15.1
Females % of female deaths
All ages Dementia and Alzheimer disease 16.7
1 to 4 Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities 15.9
5 to 19 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 12.3
20 to 34 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 15.6
35 to 49 Malignant neoplasm of breast 12.6
50 to 64 Malignant neoplasm of breast 10.1
65 to 79 Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung 10.1
80+ Dementia and Alzheimer disease 23.6
It makes sense for anyone in the ‘at risk’ category to keep away from other people and take all reasonable precautions to avoid catching the virus, but can shutting down the World’s economy be justified and is it worth the cost?
The daily death figures are only those in hospitals. The Office for National Statistics issued figures on Wednesday that included deaths in nursing homes and at home, an additional 40 for the period to Wednesday 25th March. I have asked the ONS to make additional information available so that comparisons can be made with deaths in previous years.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
I realise that, without the virus, some of those with underlying health issues may have lived for years longer and others may have died from other causes.
Before I am criticised for suggesting anyone questions the current group think, please take the time to consider this. It has been claimed that the Conservative government’s austerity policy has cost tens of thousands of lives; some people claim it is more than a hundred thousand. If the World’s economy is shut down for an extended period, the hardship caused by closed businesses, unemployment, dividends not paid, inflation, further erosion of savings, homelessness, the burden of personal, business and government debt and the higher taxes and additional cuts to public services needed to repay it could make the previous austerity seem generous.
We cannot read anything into the number of tests or positive results reported because testing is very limited and focused on patients showing symptoms with some testing of NHS staff. We therefore have no real idea of how many people have or have had the virus.
There have been various estimates of the death rate from COVID-19 ranging between 0.5% and 1.0%. Some suggest the rate may be much lower. Yesterday, 44 deaths out of 2,921 (1 in 66) in the UK were stated to have had no underlying health issues. I have used yesterday’s figures instead of today’s because I have not seen any updated figures for the number of deaths with no underlying health issues.
Based on the 1.0% overall death rate, this equates to a death rate of 0.015% (15 per 100,000) for those with no underlying health issues. Based on the lower 0.5% overall death rate, the death rate for those with no underlying health issues is 0.0075 (15 per 200,000).
According to the ONS:
• In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales
• There were 7,551 deaths registered in the UK in 2018 that related to alcohol-specific causes (11.9 deaths per 100,000 people).
Table 1: Leading cause of death by age group and sex in England and Wales, 2018
Males % of male deaths
All ages Ischaemic heart diseases 13.2
1 to 4 Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities 12.6
5 to 19 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 16.6
20 to 34 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 25.9
35 to 49 Accidental poisoning 12.5
50 to 64 Ischaemic heart diseases 17.3
65 to 79 Ischaemic heart diseases 14.8
80+ Dementia and Alzheimer disease 15.1
Females % of female deaths
All ages Dementia and Alzheimer disease 16.7
1 to 4 Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities 15.9
5 to 19 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 12.3
20 to 34 Suicide and injury/poisoning of undetermined intent 15.6
35 to 49 Malignant neoplasm of breast 12.6
50 to 64 Malignant neoplasm of breast 10.1
65 to 79 Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung 10.1
80+ Dementia and Alzheimer disease 23.6
It makes sense for anyone in the ‘at risk’ category to keep away from other people and take all reasonable precautions to avoid catching the virus, but can shutting down the World’s economy be justified and is it worth the cost?
